Analyst Warns of 'Window of Opportunity' for Max Verstappen to Leave Red Bull
A "window of opportunity" has opened for Max Verstappen to leave Red Bull, warns former executive Marcin Budkowski. Performance clauses, Helmut Marko's exit, and the team's risky 2026 engine project could prompt his departure.
Former Alpine executive Marcin Budkowski warns that a "window of opportunity" has opened for Max Verstappen to leave Red Bull, driven by the departure of his key ally Helmut Marko and the uncertainty surrounding the team's ambitious 2026 power unit project. While Verstappen is under contract until 2028, performance clauses could allow him to exit if the team's new era fails to produce a competitive car. Ultimately, Budkowski believes the Dutchman's decision will hinge on Red Bull's ability to deliver a dominant package amid a looming driver market shuffle.
Why it matters:
Verstappen is the sport's reigning superstar and the cornerstone of Red Bull's recent dominance, making his potential departure a seismic event for Formula 1. His exit would not only trigger unprecedented chaos in the driver market but also instantly elevate another team into championship contention. This situation serves as a critical test for Red Bull's stability and technical prowess as they embark on their most ambitious project yet: building their own F1 engine from scratch.
The details:
- Performance Clauses: Verstappen's contract, running until the end of 2028, reportedly contains clauses that would allow him to leave if the car is not competitive, giving him an escape route if the team's performance dips.
- Marko's Departure: The exit of advisor Helmut Marko, a long-time mentor and powerful ally to Verstappen, removes a key figure who previously helped keep the driver at the team during internal power struggles.
- The 2026 Engine Gamble: Red Bull is becoming an F1 engine supplier for the first time, a massive technical undertaking that carries significant risk and could compromise their initial competitiveness in the new regulations era.
- Driver Market Frenzy: With numerous top drivers out of contract at the end of 2025, Budkowski predicts a "wild" driver market where teams will be vying for talent based on early 2026 performance, making the power unit's reliability and performance even more critical.
What's next:
The 2026 season will be the ultimate litmus test. If Red Bull's new power unit and chassis are immediately competitive, Verstappen will likely stay and continue his quest for more titles. However, any early signs of struggle, particularly with engine reliability or power, could see Verstappen and his camp actively explore options for 2027, potentially sparking the most significant driver market move in over a decade. All eyes will be on pre-season testing and the first few races to see where the pecking order truly lies.