Decisive Factors in the Thrilling F1 Title Race

Just two rounds remain in the 2025 Formula 1 season, with Lando Norris holding a 24-point lead in the Drivers' Championship over Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen. Norris could become world champion this Sunday at the Qatar Grand Prix if he outscores his rivals by two points over the weekend, which includes a Sprint race. However, if Piastri or Verstappen are within 25 points after the Grand Prix, the title will be decided at the season-finale in Abu Dhabi on December 7.

Why it matters:

This F1 season is culminating in a nail-biting three-way title fight, a rare treat for fans. With championship glory on the line, every decision from team strategy to driver performance, and even a touch of luck, will play a critical role in determining who lifts the trophy. The dynamics between McLaren teammates Norris and Piastri, coupled with Verstappen's relentless pursuit, set the stage for a dramatic conclusion.

The details:

• McLaren's Internal Battle vs. Red Bull's Lone Wolf: Sky Sports F1's Martin Brundle predicted early in the year that the two McLarens would "take points off each other," a factor that has kept Verstappen in contention. McLaren cannot afford to fully back Norris yet, as a poor result could bring Piastri within single digits. The risk of on-track clashes, as seen in Canada and the Austin Sprint, remains high despite public affirmations of a strong relationship.
• Red Bull's Support Role: Red Bull hopes Yuki Tsunoda can provide strategic assistance to Verstappen, similar to Sergio Perez's role in 2021. However, Tsunoda's recent qualifying struggles and inability to stay close enough to hold up rivals pose a challenge. A strong performance from Tsunoda could be crucial for Verstappen, and potentially for Tsunoda's F1 future.
• The Pressure Cooker of Experience: Norris and Piastri are navigating their first F1 title fights at this level, while Verstappen is in his fifth. The immense pressure could lead to mistakes from drivers or teams. Norris claims to treat it like any other race, aiming to win, but the reality of a championship battle often leads to drivers driving slightly within themselves or taking fewer risks, which can paradoxically result in unforced errors.
• Team Performance Under Scrutiny: Pit stops, car setup, and reliability issues will all be amplified. Sky Sports F1's Bernie Collins emphasizes that teams must keep pushing 100 percent, as trying to play it safe often leads to being caught out. Any misstep from engineers or pit crew could have championship-altering consequences.
• Qualifying's Decisive Role: Since the summer break, pole-sitters have largely gone on to win races, a trend broken only in Las Vegas where Verstappen won from second but led almost every lap. The current ground effect cars make overtaking difficult due to dirty air. Norris has taken the last three pole positions, highlighting the importance of qualifying. Both Qatar and Abu Dhabi are challenging tracks for overtaking, placing immense pressure on Saturday performances.

The big picture:

This championship fight is more than just a battle of drivers; it's a test of team cohesion, strategic prowess, and mental fortitude. McLaren's consistent performance in medium and high-speed corners theoretically suits both remaining tracks. However, Verstappen's recent dominant pace across varied circuit characteristics suggests Red Bull remains a formidable threat, potentially matching or even slightly trailing the MCL39. The Sprint format in Qatar adds another layer of unpredictability, demanding quick adaptation from teams that historically struggled out of the blocks.

What's next:

Mercedes, with drivers like George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, could play a spoiler role by splitting up the McLarens and Verstappen, especially given they have less to lose in wheel-to-wheel battles. Ferrari's potential to maximize performance could also add to the mix, guaranteeing thrilling overtakes and strategic moves that the championship contenders will need to overcome. The last two race weekends promise to be incredibly close, with the drivers ultimately making the difference under immense pressure. The Qatar Grand Prix Sprint weekend is live on Sky Sports F1, continuing this season-ending triple-header.