F1 Abu Dhabi Title Decider: Our Qualifying Verdict

Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri line up first, second, and third, respectively, for the decisive Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Our experts weigh in on their qualifying performances and what to expect in the race as the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship comes down to the wire.

Why it matters:

This qualifying session sets the stage for a thrilling conclusion to the 2025 F1 season, with the top three championship contenders occupying the first three grid positions. The outcome of this race will not only crown a new world champion but also define the narratives around each driver's performance under immense pressure and their team's strategic prowess. The tension on the grid is palpable, with Norris holding the championship lead but facing a formidable challenge from Verstappen and his own teammate, Piastri.

The details:

• Nervous Times for Norris: Lando Norris is in a strong position mathematically to win the championship but faces an incredibly "nervy" Lap 1. He must decide whether to attack Verstappen, defend against Piastri, or manage both, all while anticipating his start and the run into Turn 1. His championship situation is enviable but comes with the most to lose.
• Verstappen's Timed Lap: Max Verstappen delivered a "mega lap," recovering from an 'unhappy' FP3 to dominate qualifying. His consistency in Q1 and Q2, followed by two pole-worthy laps in Q3, showcased his composure under pressure. His pole position puts him in the best possible place to win a race he "absolutely needs to win" to have a chance at the championship.
• A Verstappen Surprise: Experts were surprised by Verstappen's pole, given pre-qualifying expectations. However, his relaxed demeanor and strong race pace indications from Friday's practice suggest Red Bull has the performance to convert pole into victory, especially if front tire graining, an issue Norris has struggled with, becomes a factor.
• The First Corner Dilemma: The opening laps, especially Turn 1, are expected to be chaotic. The key question is who will prioritize the "long game" and survival over immediate track position in the high-stakes title fight. George Russell's Mercedes, despite its qualifying performance, is not expected to challenge the leaders on race pace.

What's next:

• Verstappen's Potential Tactics: If Verstappen pulls away, but Norris holds second with Piastri third, it might not be enough for the title. Some experts are questioning whether Verstappen might employ tactics similar to Lewis Hamilton in 2016, backing up Norris into the chasing pack (e.g., Russell, Leclerc) to create opportunities for others to overtake him. This would test Verstappen's resolve and his stated belief that extra championships are a bonus.
• McLaren's Challenge: While Norris is in a great position, the sheer dominance shown by Verstappen and Red Bull in qualifying highlights the consistent top-tier performance of the Dutchman throughout the season. McLaren drivers have performed exceptionally, but the championship, if won by a McLaren driver, might carry an "asterisk" for some due to Verstappen's overall season mastery.
• The Decisive Race: The race promises a gripping conclusion, with all eyes on the first few corners and how the championship contenders manage their strategies and tire wear. The 2025 F1 season is set for a truly dramatic finale, where the smallest mistake could cost a driver the ultimate prize.