F1's 2026 Power Unit Shake-Up: Fewer Teams, Bigger Struggle?
A former F1 strategist predicts the 2026 power unit rules will reshuffle the grid, with engine suppliers serving fewer customer teams at a potential disadvantage due to less data. She also warns that the new Cadillac team faces a massive challenge just to be ready for its debut race.
Former Aston Martin strategist Bernie Collins predicts a major shift in the F1 pecking order in 2026, driven by the new power unit regulations, and suggests manufacturers supplying fewer teams—like Honda—could face a steeper learning curve. The upcoming rules overhaul, the first since 2014, introduces more electrification and removes the complex MGU-H, creating a high-stakes development race where data from multiple teams will be a critical advantage.
Why it matters:
The 2026 season represents the most significant technical reset in over a decade, potentially reshuffling the competitive hierarchy. A power unit's performance and reliability will be the primary differentiator, making the development phase crucial. Collins' insight highlights a less-discussed factor: the strategic disadvantage for engine suppliers with fewer customer teams, as they will have less real-world data to accelerate development and troubleshooting.
The Details:
- The 2026 power unit regulations mandate increased electrical energy deployment and the removal of the MGU-H (Motor Generator Unit – Heat), a component that recovers energy from turbocharger waste heat.
- Collins argues that manufacturers supplying multiple teams, like Mercedes (which powers Mercedes, McLaren, and Williams), will have a significant data advantage. With three teams running their engine, they can gather more information, test more solutions, and identify issues faster.
- In contrast, Honda, which will exclusively supply the Aston Martin works team from 2026, will have a much smaller data pool, potentially slowing its development feedback loop.
- The prediction challenges the assumption that Mercedes-powered teams will automatically rise to the top, emphasizing that the raw performance of the new engine designs remains an unknown.
The Big Picture:
The 2026 changes are designed to attract new manufacturers like Ford and Audi by simplifying the power unit and promoting sustainable fuels. However, they also reset the playing field, offering a chance for teams currently in the midfield to leapfrog rivals if their engine partner nails the new formula. This introduces a new layer of strategic risk for teams tied to a single-supplier manufacturer.
What's Next:
All eyes will be on pre-season testing in early 2026 to see which manufacturers have unlocked performance and reliability. Collins also highlighted the monumental challenge facing the new Cadillac (Andretti Global) team, set to join the grid that year. Drawing parallels to Haas's difficult debut in 2016, she stated that simply getting two cars reliably on the grid in Melbourne would constitute a major victory for the American outfit, underscoring that for new teams, operational readiness can be as big a hurdle as outright car performance.