F1 World Title Showdown: How Norris, Verstappen, or Piastri Can Win in Abu Dhabi

For the first time since 2021, the F1 World Drivers' Championship will be decided at the season finale in Abu Dhabi, with Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and Oscar Piastri all mathematically in contention. Norris holds a significant advantage, leading Verstappen by 12 points and Piastri by 16 points heading into the final race of the season. The permutations for each driver to clinch the title are varied, with Norris having the most straightforward path to his maiden championship.

Why it matters:

• A championship decider involving three drivers adds immense drama and unpredictability to the F1 season finale, a rarity since the 2021 Hamilton vs. Verstappen epic.
• Lando Norris is on the verge of his first F1 world title, which would mark a significant milestone for both him and McLaren, signaling a strong resurgence for the team.
• Max Verstappen, despite being a long-time frontrunner, is now the second favorite, showcasing the tight competition and the rollercoaster nature of the season.
• Oscar Piastri, in his rookie season, still has an outside chance, which would be an unprecedented achievement and highlight his exceptional talent.

The details:

• Lando Norris's Path to Victory:

  • Podium Finish: A podium finish (P1, P2, or P3) guarantees Norris the title, automatically eliminating Verstappen and Piastri.
  • Fourth or Fifth: Norris can secure the title by finishing fourth or fifth, provided Verstappen does not win the race.
  • Sixth Place: If Norris finishes sixth, neither of his rivals can win the race for him to clinch the championship.
  • Seventh or Eighth: A seventh or eighth-place finish requires Verstappen to be no higher than third and Piastri no higher than second.
  • Ninth Place: If Norris finishes ninth, Verstappen must be fourth or worse, and Piastri must not win the race.
  • Tenth Place: In the final points-paying spot, Norris needs Verstappen to be fourth or lower and Piastri to be third or lower.
  • Outside Points/DNF: If Norris finishes outside the points or retires, he relies on Verstappen finishing fourth or worse and Piastri third or worse.

• Max Verstappen's Path to Victory:

  • Verstappen needs a strong performance, as he cannot afford to finish off the podium.
  • First Place: If Verstappen wins, he needs Norris to finish fourth or lower.
  • Second Place: A second-place finish for Verstappen requires Norris to be eighth or lower, with Piastri no higher than third.
  • Third Place: If Verstappen finishes third, Norris must be ninth or below, and Piastri second or below.

• Oscar Piastri's Path to Victory:

  • Piastri faces the toughest challenge and needs a significant swing in results.
  • He must finish in the top two to have any chance.
  • First Place: If Piastri wins the race, Norris must finish no higher than fifth.
  • Second Place: A second-place finish for Piastri requires Norris to be no higher than tenth and Verstappen no higher than fourth.

What's next:

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is set to be a thrilling conclusion to the F1 season, with all eyes on how these complex permutations play out. The pressure is immense on all three drivers and their respective teams. The performance in qualifying will be crucial, as starting position can heavily influence race strategy and outcomes. Ultimately, reliability, driver skill, and a bit of luck will determine who will be crowned the 2024 F1 World Drivers' Champion in what promises to be an unforgettable finale.