Lost Points Prove Verstappen's McLaren Claim Right

Max Verstappen's assertion that he's in F1 title contention due to McLaren's 'failures' gained significant traction after McLaren's latest blunders in Qatar. While Lando Norris still leads by 12 points, Verstappen is now his closest threat, with Oscar Piastri a further four points behind. This dynamic shift transforms what was largely a two-horse race between McLaren drivers into a wide-open finale.

Why it matters:

Verstappen's provocative claim shines a harsh light on McLaren's significant point losses throughout the 2025 season. Despite potentially winning both championships, the Drivers' title has proven a struggle, indicating that McLaren's operational efficiency and driver consistency have not matched their car's potential. This analysis validates Verstappen's point and underscores how crucial every point is in a tight championship battle.

The details:

• Verstappen's Hypothesis: Verstappen stated in Qatar that he would have won the title 'a long time ago' if he were driving the McLaren, suggesting a high degree of confidence in his ability to avoid the pitfalls that have cost McLaren valuable points.
• Subjective 'Lost Points': While 'lost points' can be subjective, this analysis focuses on realistically achievable better results that McLaren drivers failed to secure due to driver error, team mishaps, or uncontrollable race circumstances.
• Piastri's Losses: Oscar Piastri is deemed to have lost the most points, with an estimated 84 legitimate points on the table. This tally is split almost evenly between his own errors and other factors.
  • Major Incidents: His biggest single loss was in Australia, spinning off on slicks in the rain. He also saw three potential wins turn into second places: at Silverstone (harsh penalty), Hungary (Norris's unexpected winning strategy), and Qatar (safety car bungling).
  • Recent Struggles: Piastri's run since his last win at Zandvoort includes errors in Azerbaijan, sprint race crashes in the US and Brazil, a controversial penalty in Brazil, and disqualification in Vegas.
• Norris's Losses: Lando Norris isn't far behind, with an estimated 72 lost points.
  • Key Incidents: His most significant misses were an engine shutdown at Zandvoort (costing second place) and losing the same position in Las Vegas. Costly mistakes also include poor qualifying/racing in the China sprint, a crash in Saudi Arabia qualifying, and a collision with Piastri in Canada.
  • Qatar Incident: While affected by the safety car in Qatar, Norris's dropped three points are attributed to his own pace, as he fell behind Carlos Sainz and Kimi Antonelli before regaining a position from Antonelli.
• Error Breakdown: Both drivers show a relatively even split between self-inflicted errors and unjust losses. Piastri could have avoided an estimated 47 points, with 40 unjustly lost. Norris cost himself at least 29 points, with 43 more going begging.
• Verstappen's Own Errors: Even Verstappen hasn't been perfect, dropping meaningful points four times, twice due to his own errors (losing his head in Spain, spinning at Silverstone safety car restart).

The big picture:

This detailed breakdown of lost points highlights the brutal reality of championship racing, where every decision and every mistake can have profound implications. While McLaren's car has demonstrated championship-winning potential, the cumulative effect of these 'failures' has allowed Verstappen and Red Bull to claw their way back into contention for a title that, on paper, should have been settled sooner by McLaren.

What's next:

With the Abu Dhabi finale approaching, the championship remains undecided. While Verstappen has maximized his points better, the analysis suggests that a combination of driver errors and unlucky circumstances prevented Piastri and Norris from settling the fight earlier. Ultimately, if either McLaren driver secures the title, the championship trophy will serve as proof of a highly competitive season, despite the missed opportunities.