Red Bull Can't Rely on McLaren's Mistakes for F1 Title

Red Bull is facing an unexpected challenge in the F1 title fight, as McLaren's Lando Norris showed impressive pace in Abu Dhabi practice, putting championship leader Max Verstappen on the back foot. While Norris topped FP1 by a narrow margin, he extended that gap significantly in FP2, a session more indicative of qualifying conditions. This performance is raising concerns within Red Bull, particularly after setup changes failed to improve Verstappen's car, which suffered from understeer in critical slow corners.

Why it matters:

Red Bull's dominance has been a given for much of the season, but McLaren's resurgence, particularly with Norris leading the championship by 12 points, has turned the title fight into a nail-biter. If Norris can maintain his qualifying pace, Red Bull will need to find significant performance to win on merit rather than relying on their rivals' errors, a scenario team advisor Helmut Marko explicitly wants to avoid.

The details:

• Practice Pace: Lando Norris was just 0.008s quicker than Verstappen in FP1, but that gap widened to a concerning 0.363s in FP2, which is more representative of race conditions due to track evolution.
• Red Bull's Struggles: Verstappen's Red Bull RB21 displayed significant understeer, particularly in sector three's slow 90-degree corners, a characteristic that hindered his performance. Setup changes between sessions failed to yield the desired improvements.
• McLaren's Performance: While Norris showed strong pace, teammate Oscar Piastri, who missed FP1 for rookie running, had a messy FP2, finishing 11th. Despite this, the overall McLaren package appears competitive.
• Past Incidents: McLaren has had recent missteps, including a double disqualification in Las Vegas and a strategy error in Qatar. However, Red Bull's Helmut Marko emphasized that they "can't rely three times on mistakes" from McLaren.
• Engine Modes & Degradation: Red Bull typically runs lower engine modes on Fridays. However, Marko noted Verstappen's higher tire degradation on medium-compound tires compared to Norris, an issue compounded by graining on the front-right tire.

Between the lines:

Red Bull's ability to turn around car performance overnight is legendary, but the persistent understeer in the RB21 in specific corners points to a more fundamental setup challenge. The team's reliance on their own strengths, rather than McLaren's potential errors, highlights the pressure they are under to extract maximum performance from Verstappen's car. The championship margin is tight, and every tenth will count.

What's next:

Red Bull will be working intensely to address the understeer and optimize Verstappen's car for qualifying. The team has an extra set of medium-compound tires saved for the race, offering strategic flexibility, but tire degradation will be a key factor. The prospect of Mercedes and Ferrari disrupting McLaren's race also seems unlikely, according to Marko, leaving Red Bull to fight a direct battle with Norris. If Red Bull can't close the gap, they face an uphill battle against a resurgent McLaren.