Steiner Predicts 'Outliers' and Epic Failures in F1's 2026 Reset

Former Haas boss Guenther Steiner is predicting a dramatic and potentially chaotic reshuffle of the F1 grid in 2026, warning that the sport's massive regulation overhaul will produce clear winners and 'epic' losers. With the introduction of smaller, lighter cars, a 50/50 combustion-electric power unit, and complex active aerodynamics, Steiner believes the grid will be defined by 'outliers'—teams that either nail the new concept or get it completely wrong.

Why it matters:

This potential upheaval is seen as a necessary evil to break the current competitive deadlock and prevent F1 from stagnating. With the current regulations maturing, the pecking order has become entrenched, making it difficult for teams to challenge a dominant frontrunner like McLaren. The 2026 reset represents a rare opportunity for midfield teams to leapfrog the competition and for the sport to drive critical technological advancements, particularly in the area of 100% sustainable fuels.

The details:

• The 2026 rules represent a total overhaul, not just an evolution, featuring new chassis, smaller cars, and a revolutionary power unit with a 50/50 split between internal combustion and electric power.
• Steiner's key concern is the introduction of active aerodynamics, which will allow wings to adjust on straights to reduce drag. He predicts this complexity will lead to a massive performance gap: 'Some people will get it right, and some people will not get it so right... there will be some outliers – some very fast cars, and maybe somebody will get it completely wrong and be slow for a year or two.'
• The new regulations mandate the use of 100% sustainable fuels, a development Steiner believes could have a significant impact on the future of the automotive industry beyond Formula 1.

What's next:

The 2026 season is shaping up to be a high-stakes gamble for every team on the grid. The development race is already well underway, with each team betting its future on a unique interpretation of the rules. While the prospect of a team being left behind for years is stark, Steiner argues that this 'creative destruction' is the only way to reinvent the sport and keep it interesting for fans and competitors alike.