Toto Wolff: Kimi Antonelli may not reach peak F1 level until 2030

Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has projected that rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli may require three to five years, potentially until 2030, to reach his peak performance level in Formula 1. This timeline underscores the team's long-term commitment to the highly-touted 19-year-old, who debuted in 2025 with limited junior formula experience.

Why it matters:

Wolff's patient outlook signals a significant strategic shift for a top team, prioritizing long-term development over immediate results. In an era where young drivers are often expected to perform instantly, Mercedes is publicly committing to a multi-year growth plan for Antonelli, acknowledging the immense pressure and learning curve associated with F1. This approach could redefine how top teams nurture future stars.

The details:

• Antonelli's debut season was marked by expected inconsistency, with the Italian scoring 150 points to teammate George Russell's 319 and trailing 24-5 in qualifying head-to-heads.
• Wolff emphasized the "human component" of development, stating Antonelli needs time to "mature as a young man" and cope with the pressure of the F1 environment.
• Mercedes High Performance Powertrains managing director Hywel Thomas highlighted the value of Antonelli's 2025 experience ahead of the major 2026 technical regulation changes, calling it "extraordinary difficult" for a driver to debut directly into the new era.
• Antonelli has been deeply integrated into technical preparations at Mercedes' Brixworth engine facility, providing input on the upcoming changes.

The big picture:

Antonelli's accelerated path—skipping F3 and having only one F2 season—meant his F1 debut came with less experience than most modern rookies. Mercedes' decision to promote him was facilitated by Lewis Hamilton's move to Ferrari. The team now views his challenging first year as a crucial foundation, giving him familiarity with the team and the current cars before everything changes in 2026.

What's next:

The focus for 2026 will be on adaptation to the new chassis and power unit regulations. With a year of experience under his belt, Antonelli is better positioned to contribute to development and handle the transition. Mercedes' investment is a long-term bet, with Wolff's timeline suggesting the team believes Antonelli's true championship-contending potential will emerge in the latter part of the decade.