Tsunoda's inconsistent Qatar GP performance jeopardizes Red Bull F1 future

Yuki Tsunoda's inconsistent performance at the Qatar Grand Prix, particularly his qualifying struggles, appears to have jeopardized his final opportunity for a Red Bull Formula 1 seat. Despite an impressive sprint qualifying and race, his inability to carry that momentum into Grand Prix qualifying drew sharp criticism from Helmut Marko.

Why it matters:

Tsunoda's struggle for consistent performance is a recurring theme that could ultimately cost him a future with Red Bull. With crucial driver decisions for 2026 looming, a strong, consistent weekend was essential to prove his readiness for a top-tier F1 drive. His current predicament highlights Red Bull's ongoing challenge in identifying and nurturing talent for their secondary team, Racing Bulls, and potentially their main squad.

The details:

• Strong Start: Tsunoda began the Qatar weekend impressively, outperforming teammate Max Verstappen in sprint qualifying and securing a strong fifth place in the sprint race.
• Sudden Decline: Despite his early promise, Tsunoda surprisingly failed to advance past Q1 in Grand Prix qualifying, finishing 16th. He expressed bewilderment, stating, "I have no idea what happened. The lap was clean, comparable to what I did yesterday with P5." He further insisted he made no mistakes, claiming he was "really on the limit."
• Marko's Displeasure: Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko was unimpressed, bluntly stating, "Nothing. He just couldn’t repeat his performance (from sprint qualifying)." This assessment underscores the team's demand for sustained high performance.
• Critical Timing: This inconsistency comes at a critical juncture, as Red Bull is set to finalize its 2026 driver lineup after the Qatar Grand Prix. Tsunoda's lack of a fully consistent weekend likely diminishes his chances.

The big picture:

Red Bull faces a challenging decision regarding its 2026 driver lineup. While Isack Hadjar seems poised for a Red Bull Racing seat alongside Max Verstappen, and Arvid Lindblad is likely headed for Racing Bulls, the final spot at Racing Bulls is contested between Liam Lawson and Tsunoda. Neither driver is currently in top form, presenting a "luxury problem" for Red Bull. Tsunoda's latest performance, marked by flashes of brilliance followed by significant drops, complicates an already difficult choice for the team.

What's next:

The decision on the 2026 driver lineup, particularly for Racing Bulls, is imminent following the Qatar Grand Prix. While Tsunoda's strong sprint performance provided a glimmer of hope, his subsequent qualifying struggles have likely cast a long shadow over his Red Bull future. The team will weigh his potential against Lawson's recent showings, with consistency being a key factor in their final choice.