Tsunoda's Performance Puts Pressure on Red Bull's 2026 Driver Decision
Yuki Tsunoda's unexpected outperformace of Max Verstappen in Qatar Sprint Qualifying has intensified Red Bull's 2026 driver decision. Formerly considered on his way out, Tsunoda's recent form puts pressure on the team to reconsider his future at Racing Bulls, where he is battling Liam Lawson for a crucial seat in the new regulatory era. The upcoming announcement will reveal Red Bull's strategic priorities for its junior team.
Yuki Tsunoda is making a strong case for himself in the final phase of the F1 season, significantly complicating Red Bull's 2026 driver choices. Once seemingly on his way out, a standout performance in Qatar Sprint Qualifying, where he outperformed Max Verstappen, could be a career-saver.
Why it matters:
Red Bull's junior program is designed to feed talent into its F1 teams. The impending 2026 regulations, which include new cars, engines, and tires, make the choice of drivers for both Red Bull Racing and Racing Bulls critical. A strong, communicative driver will be vital for development, and Tsunoda's recent form forces Red Bull to re-evaluate its long-term strategy for its second team.
The Details:
- Challenging the Heir Apparent: For months, Isack Hadjar has been rumored to be the 'crown prince' destined for Red Bull Racing in 2026. This seemed to sideline Tsunoda.
- Tsunoda's 2025 Struggles: Over the 2025 season, Tsunoda often struggled to match Max Verstappen's pace and collect points, especially compared to his teammate, who is a championship contender.
- Qatar Breakthrough: In a significant turn of events, Tsunoda finished ahead of Verstappen in Sprint Qualifying in Qatar, a feat rarely achieved by Liam Lawson or Sergio Perez. This performance has reignited his chances.
- Tsunoda's Confidence: Following his strong qualifying, Tsunoda expressed satisfaction with his clean race weekend and growing confidence, highlighting the team's focus and his own excitement for the remaining sessions.
- The Racing Bulls Battle: For 2026, Tsunoda is vying for a seat at Racing Bulls. A demotion from the main team, it would nonetheless offer a temporary lifeline to his F1 career. Without it, he would likely be out of Formula 1.
- Direct Competition: The main contender for the Racing Bulls seat alongside expected talent Arvid Lindblad is Liam Lawson. Lawson, a Red Bull junior, has often been favored by Helmut Marko for his aggressive driving style and communication skills.
- Lawson's Mixed Record: Despite being promoted to Red Bull Racing briefly in early 2025 (a move that "backfired"), Lawson has not consistently proven faster than Tsunoda. He was notably outpaced by Isack Hadjar in his rookie year at Racing Bulls.
- Marko's Changing Tune: Even Helmut Marko, a frequent critic, acknowledged Tsunoda's significant improvement, noting his increasing comfort with the RB21 and deeper involvement in the technical aspects of the team.
The big picture:
Red Bull faces a dilemma reminiscent of previous seasons. The choice between Lawson and Tsunoda for Racing Bulls will reflect Red Bull's priorities: pure speed (Tsunoda) versus communication and Red Bull junior program loyalty (Lawson). This decision is crucial not just for the drivers' careers but for how Racing Bulls navigates the significant technical changes coming in 2026.
What's next:
Red Bull is expected to announce its driver lineup for both Red Bull Racing and Racing Bulls next week, following the Qatar Grand Prix. This decision will reveal their strategic direction and could define the trajectory of a key F1 team in the new era.