Verstappen Closer to McLarens Than You Think at Abu Dhabi
Max Verstappen's performance at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is proving more competitive than initial standings suggest, especially in long-run pace. Despite appearing 0.35s behind Lando Norris in practice, deeper analysis of their medium-tire runs, including Verstappen's longer stint and a late-run car issue, reveals a much narrower gap, hinting at an intense championship battle.
Max Verstappen is steadily pushing his Red Bull into contention at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. While Lando Norris's McLaren initially appeared significantly quicker, a closer look at the long-run data reveals Verstappen's pace is far more competitive than the headline times suggest, setting the stage for an intense battle.
Why it matters:
After a challenging start to the weekend for Red Bull, Verstappen's hidden pace in race simulations signals a potential championship showdown. The perceived gap between Red Bull and McLaren is narrowing, indicating that the title fight could be much closer than initially assumed, especially as Red Bull finds its optimal setup.
The details:
- Qualifying vs. Race Pace: Norris was quicker in both simulated qualifying (on softs) and race runs (on mediums), but the margin was significantly smaller in the latter, especially when accounting for run length.
- Verstappen's Long Run: Verstappen's medium-tire long run was over 60% longer than Norris's, with a 0.43s difference in their race run averages. This difference is almost entirely explained by the extended run length.
- Car Issue: For the last three laps of Verstappen's run, his pace dropped off sharply due as he reported a potential car issue. If this period is excluded, Verstappen's average pace was within less than 0.1s of Norris's.
- McLaren's Weakness: The McLaren showed some susceptibility to front graining during long runs, a characteristic that typically diminishes as the track rubbers in.
- Piastri's Struggle: Title contender Oscar Piastri appeared to struggle, placing 11th in headline times and nearly 0.5s slower than Norris in long runs, trailing Verstappen despite fewer laps.
- Mercedes Performance: George Russell's low-fuel lap was competitive, but his long-run average lagged significantly. Kimi Antonelli, in the other Mercedes, showed a closer match to Red Bull in race simulations.
- Ferrari's Pace: Ferrari, with Charles Leclerc, was notably behind on single-lap pace, even trailing several customer teams.
By the numbers:
Long-run averages (all mediums)
- Norris 1m29.267s (8 laps)
- Verstappen 1m29.698s (13 laps)
- Antonelli 1m 29.735s (4 laps)
- Piastri 1m 29.741s (6 laps)
- Leclerc 1m 29.935s (5 laps)
- Russell 1m 30.144s (5 laps)
What's next:
Red Bull typically takes longer to reach its sweet spot, suggesting that Verstappen's current performance, despite perceived issues, bodes well for the crucial qualifying and race sessions. McLaren will be wary of the progress Verstappen has made, and Piastri will be looking to turn his weekend around. The stage is set for a thrilling conclusion to the season.