Wolff Cautions Against 2026 'Favorite' Label, Highlights Grid Competitiveness

Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff has pushed back on suggestions his team is the favorite for the 2026 Formula 1 season, emphasizing the unpredictability of the upcoming major regulation changes and the increased competitiveness of the grid compared to past eras.

Why it matters:

With a sweeping overhaul of technical and power unit regulations set for 2026, historical precedent points to Mercedes as a potential front-runner, given their dominant transition into the last major rule change in 2014. However, Wolff's caution underscores a fundamental shift in F1's competitive landscape, where the margin for error is smaller and the field is more tightly packed than ever before, making any prediction highly speculative.

The details:

• When asked about the 'favorite' tag for 2026, Wolff stated it is "super difficult to predict," noting that while the team is on track to meet its internal targets, the true test will be whether those targets were ambitious and correctly prioritized.
• He highlighted the rapid approach of the new era, remarking, "It’s coming up quickly, just eight weeks away, which is awful to say!"
• Drawing a contrast between the lead-up to 2014 and now, Wolff recalled the more optimistic atmosphere in 2013 when Mercedes, after calculating points with "pen and paper," secured second in the constructors' championship and won three races.
• He indicated that the team had early positive signals in the 2014 winter, being the first to run a full car on the dyno with a reliable engine, but firmly stated the current situation is "not comparable."
• The key differentiator, according to Wolff, is that "The grid is just much more competitive than it was in previous years."

Looking ahead:

Wolff's comments temper expectations and frame 2026 not as a foregone conclusion for any one team, but as an open contest shaped by a new set of rules. Mercedes' historical success in regulatory resets provides a foundation, but their recent struggles to adapt to the 2022 ground-effect rules serve as a cautionary tale. The true pecking order will only become clear once the new cars hit the track, with every top team investing heavily to gain an early advantage in the next cycle of the sport.