Wolff cautious on Mercedes' 2026 favorite status, warns against complacency

Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has dismissed suggestions his team is the clear favorite for the 2026 Formula 1 season, despite widespread rumors of a superior power unit. Speaking on the Beyond the Grid podcast, Wolff emphasized a culture of caution within the team and warned that internal competition from Mercedes-powered rivals like McLaren would be the first major hurdle, even with a strong engine.

Why it matters:

With the 2026 technical regulations overhaul approaching, expectations are high for Mercedes to reclaim its dominant position from the start of the hybrid era. Wolff's public downplaying of these expectations serves a dual purpose: it manages external pressure on the team while reinforcing an internal mindset focused on relentless improvement, not past success or speculative rumors.

The details:

• Wolff explicitly rejected the notion of confidence, stating the team operates with a "half glass, half empty" mentality and never feels entitled to claim superiority.
• He identified the primary competition as coming from within the Mercedes customer family, naming McLaren, Williams, and Alpine as the first teams to beat if the power unit proves strong.
  • He noted that these customer teams may have benefited from more aerodynamic development time due to lower championship positions in recent seasons.
• The Austrian warned that rumors of Mercedes' strength could backfire by motivating rival manufacturers and suppliers to target them, describing such gossip as "dangerous."
• Wolff also referenced his earlier, controversial claim that the 2026 cars could theoretically reach 400 km/h with full energy deployment, a statement later clarified by the FIA's Nikolas Tombazis as not reflecting real-world race speeds.

The big picture:

Wolff's comments reflect a strategic shift from Mercedes' pre-2022 dominance, where they often set the benchmark. The team is now entering a new regulatory cycle from a position of having been defeated by Red Bull and now McLaren in the current era. This context makes managing expectations crucial. By publicly focusing on the threat from customer teams and dismissing favorite talk, Wolff aims to insulate his team from complacency and external hype, framing 2026 as a clean slate where nothing is guaranteed.

What's next:

The development race for the 2026 chassis and power units is intensifying behind closed doors. Mercedes' performance will ultimately be judged on the track, but Wolff's messaging sets a clear internal tone: the road back to the top runs directly through beating their own customers first, and no advantage can be taken for granted.