Wolff dismisses 2026 favorite talk: 'Rumor mills are always dangerous'

Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff is firmly rejecting the growing narrative that his team is the pre-season favorite for Formula 1's 2026 regulation overhaul. Despite the team's historic mastery of the last major rules reset in 2014, Wolff insists Mercedes is taking nothing for granted and views early hype as a potential trap.

Why it matters:

The 2026 season represents the biggest technical reset in over a decade, offering a chance to reshuffle the competitive order. Mercedes being positioned as the benchmark creates a unique psychological and strategic dynamic. If rivals believe Mercedes is ahead, it could galvanize their efforts, while also placing immense pressure and expectation on the Brackley squad to deliver.

The details:

• Wolff explicitly stated the team has zero confidence from preseason predictions, describing the mentality as "glass half-empty."
• He pointed to customer team McLaren's superior performance in 2024 as a key reason for skepticism, arguing that even a superior power unit must first prove itself against other Mercedes-powered teams like Williams and Alpine.
• The Austrian highlighted tangible disadvantages, noting some rivals will have had more aerodynamic development time due to lower positions in the Constructors' Championship.
• Wolff identified the "rumor mill" itself as a danger, suggesting it can motivate competitors who hear another team is favored.

By the numbers:

Mercedes will supply power units to four teams in 2026: its own factory squad, McLaren, Williams, and Alpine. This creates a complex dynamic of quadruple the data streams but also a significant logistical challenge in manufacturing hardware and locking in design decisions earlier.

The big picture:

Mercedes engine chief Hywel Thomas echoed Wolff's caution, acknowledging that while the 2026 rules were designed to prevent a single dominant concept, the possibility of a team finding a "loophole" or revolutionary idea remains. He admitted the pre-season period for a new rules cycle is always fraught with anxiety about power, reliability, and integration, a feeling only absent in 2024 with the mature current power unit.

What's next:

All speculation will be put to the test when the 2026 cars hit the track. Mercedes' public downplaying of expectations is a classic strategic move, whether born of genuine concern or gamesmanship. The true pecking order will only be revealed under the intense scrutiny of pre-season testing and the opening races, where data replaces rumor.