Alonso warns of potential surprises in F1 2026 pecking order at Australian GP

Fernando Alonso predicts the initial F1 2026 pecking order established in pre-season testing could be upended when the season begins in earnest at the Australian Grand Prix. While Mercedes and Ferrari emerged as early favorites from testing, the Aston Martin driver believes the radical new regulations leave room for unexpected shifts, with some top teams potentially underperforming and midfield squads springing surprises.

Why it matters:

The 2026 season represents the biggest technical shake-up in years, with new chassis rules and a move to a 50/50 combustion-hybrid power unit formula. This reset was designed to close the field, making the opening race a critical first indicator of which teams have best interpreted the rules. Alonso’s warning underscores the inherent uncertainty before any competitive laps are run, suggesting the true competitive landscape may only become clear under the pressure of a race weekend.

The details:

• A perceived hierarchy formed during six days of testing in Bahrain, with Mercedes and Ferrari appearing strongest on both chassis and power unit performance.
• Red Bull impressed with its all-new, in-house power unit, particularly its energy deployment, though some of that advantage seemed to reduce by the final test day.
• Aston Martin endured a difficult second test, with reliability issues plaguing its Honda power unit and forcing the team to sit out most of the final day, casting doubt on its early-season form.
• The midfield, comprising five teams, appeared extremely tight and difficult to separate based on testing data alone.
• Alonso highlighted the potential for volatility, stating, “I don’t know who is going to be the surprise, but I think some of the top teams, maybe one of them will not be as fast as we think – and some of the midfield teams will be a little bit faster.”

What’s next:

All theories will be tested on track at the Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne. Alonso further suggested that the competitive order will evolve significantly throughout the season, drawing a parallel to McLaren’s dramatic improvement in 2023. He anticipates the championship picture in Abu Dhabi will look different from Australia, emphasizing the development race that will follow the opening rounds as teams unlock more performance from their new cars.