Bookmakers name early favorites for 2026 F1 titles, overlooking reigning champions
George Russell and Mercedes are the bookmakers' early favorites for the 2026 F1 championships, with odds suggesting a major shift away from current champions Red Bull and Max Verstappen. Fernando Alonso's surprisingly high ranking adds intrigue to the pre-regulatory change speculation.
Bookmakers have installed George Russell and Mercedes as the early favorites for the 2026 Drivers' and Constructors' Championships, a notable nod to their potential despite the team's recent title drought and the driver's lack of a sustained championship fight. The odds notably sideline the current reigning champions, suggesting a significant shift in perceived competitive order is anticipated with the new regulations.
Why it matters:
Early betting odds often reflect the prevailing sentiment and technical expectations within the F1 paddock ahead of a major regulatory shift. Positioning Russell and Mercedes at the front, while downgrading Red Bull and Max Verstappen, signals a widespread belief that the 2026 rules will reset the competitive hierarchy and that Mercedes' development path is highly trusted.
The details:
- Constructors' Odds: Mercedes leads the betting at 5/4, followed by McLaren at 10/3. Ferrari (8/1) and the reigning champion team, Red Bull (10/1), are considered longer shots.
- Drivers' Odds: George Russell is the top pick at 2/1. Max Verstappen follows at 4/1, with Fernando Alonso and Lando Norris both priced at 8/1.
- Surprise Inclusion: Fernando Alonso's high ranking is unexpected after a 2025 season spent away from the front, hinting at bookmakers' faith in Aston Martin's 2026 project or the driver's unparalleled adaptability.
- Team Reaction: Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff has downplayed the favorite tag, welcoming the recognition but emphasizing that track performance, not odds, will determine the outcome.
What's next:
These odds provide an intriguing baseline for the 2026 narrative but will remain volatile until pre-season testing reveals true performance. All eyes will be on Mercedes to see if they can convert this off-track confidence into on-track dominance, while Red Bull and Ferrari will be motivated to prove the early predictions wrong. The real story will begin to unfold as teams unveil their new-generation cars early in 2026.