Experts predict Mercedes to lead Ferrari, McLaren in tight 2026 F1 battle

Based on pre-season testing, a panel of experts predicts Mercedes will hold a narrow advantage over Ferrari and McLaren in the 2026 Formula 1 constructors' championship, with Red Bull leading a tight midfield. However, the new regulations and relentless development race mean the initial pecking order from Bahrain is far from definitive for the grueling 24-race season ahead.

Why it matters:

The 2026 season represents the first major test of F1's sweeping new technical regulations, designed to create closer racing. Early predictions provide a crucial snapshot of which teams have best interpreted the new rules, setting the stage for a development war that will define the championship. A reshuffled order could end years of dominance by a single team and revitalize competition across the grid.

The details:

• Mercedes as the favorite: The W17's strong long-run pace and a potent HPP power unit have made Mercedes the unanimous pick for the constructors' title among the experts. The team is seen as well-placed to develop the car, though some reliability niggles emerged in testing.
• The fight for best of the rest: The panel was split on whether Ferrari or McLaren would finish second. Ferrari impressed with raw pace and bold innovations like a rotating rear wing, signaling an aggressive design philosophy. McLaren earns favor based on its proven ability to deliver in-season upgrades.
• Red Bull's new challenge: All experts placed Red Bull fourth, marking a significant shift. While the team has a resurgent structure and Max Verstappen, the relative inexperience of teammate Isack Hadjar is seen as a potential handicap against the formidable pairings of its rivals.
• A tight and varied midfield: Alpine, having switched to Mercedes power, is tipped to lead a congested midfield pack ahead of Haas, Racing Bulls, and Williams. Audi showed promising late-testing pace as it adapts to its new power unit.
• Backmarker battles: Aston Martin, plagued by a disastrous testing program and ongoing Honda power unit concerns, is predicted to struggle, fighting with the all-new Cadillac team at the rear of the grid.
• Driver championship outlook: George Russell is the consensus pick for the drivers' title, benefiting from Mercedes' projected car advantage. Charles Leclerc is forecast to finish second. The battle for third is wide open, with predictions split between Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and the rising Kimi Antonelli.

What's next:

The true 2026 pecking order will only be revealed under the pressure of race weekends and the relentless development race. Teams like McLaren and Ferrari have strong upgrade histories, while Aston Martin and Audi will be desperate to climb from their predicted positions. The uncertainty of the new rules means these early predictions could look very different in nine months, making the 2026 season one of the most fascinating and unpredictable in recent years.