Lewis Hamilton's Ferrari Move Weakened Its 2025 Line-Up

Lewis Hamilton's debut season at Ferrari has raised serious questions about whether he is an upgrade over Carlos Sainz, as data across points, qualifying, and race performance shows he was significantly outperformed by Charles Leclerc compared to his predecessor. While the struggling SF-25 car exacerbated the situation, the margins were stark, suggesting Ferrari may have inadvertently weakened its driver lineup for 2025.

Why it matters:

• Ferrari's blockbuster signing of Hamilton was meant to be the final piece in its puzzle to mount a serious championship challenge. A driver lineup that is less competitive than the previous year directly undermines that goal and the massive investment made in the seven-time world champion.

By the numbers:

• A comparison of Hamilton's 2025 season to Sainz's four-year tenure at Ferrari against the same benchmark, Leclerc, reveals a clear performance dip.
• Points Scored: Hamilton scored just 64.5% of Leclerc's points. Sainz never dropped below 79.9% in any of his four seasons.
• Qualifying Gap: On average, Hamilton was 0.178s slower than Leclerc in qualifying. Sainz's average deficit over four years was a much smaller 0.109s.
• Race Performance: The gap in average race position was the most telling. Hamilton finished races an average of 2.6 positions behind Leclerc, while Sainz's average gap was only 0.33 positions.

What's next:

• The 2026 rule reset represents a clean slate for both Ferrari and Hamilton. The team's performance slump in the second half of 2025 likely magnified the deficits, but both sides entered the partnership with high expectations that were not met. Recalibration will be key if they are to challenge for top honors in the new era.