Max Verstappen ‘best on the grid’ but Red Bull trails Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren

Sky Sports F1 commentator David Croft has stirred debate by claiming that, based on pre-season testing form, Red Bull is only the fourth-fastest team behind Mercedes, McLaren, and Ferrari. He argues that while Max Verstappen remains the "best on the grid," the team would need "two Maxes" to truly challenge for the championships given the apparent performance deficit of its car and rookie teammate Isack Hadjar.

Why it matters:

Croft's analysis, coming from one of the sport's most prominent voices, sets a provocative narrative ahead of the season opener. It highlights the potential vulnerability of the reigning champions and shifts focus onto the team dynamic at Red Bull, questioning whether Verstappen can single-handedly overcome a car that may not be the class of the field. If accurate, it signals a dramatic shift from Red Bull's recent dominance to a much tighter four-way fight at the front.

The details:

• Croft's Pecking Order: The Sky pundit explicitly ranked the top four as: 1. Mercedes, 2. McLaren, 3. Ferrari, 4. Red Bull, while noting the gaps are "very close together."
• The Verstappen Factor: Croft heaped praise on Verstappen's unique talent, citing his 2024 Japanese GP win in a non-dominant car as proof of his ability to make a difference. He suggested that with "two Maxes," Red Bull would be second in his ranking.
• Testing Caveats: The analysis comes with significant uncertainty, as teams ran unknown fuel loads, engine modes, and test programs during the Bahrain test. Ferrari set the fastest time, but its true pace is unconfirmed.
• The Hadjar Question: Rookie teammate Isack Hadjar struggled with reliability and pace, finishing the test 15th and over 2.3 seconds off the benchmark. His performance fuels Croft's argument about Red Bull's reliance solely on Verstappen.
• Competitor Mind Games: The article notes that rivals have spent testing talking each other up, with Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari all being labelled as favorites at different points, adding to the pre-season confusion.

What's next:

All theories will face their first real test at the season-opening Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne. However, Albert Park's unique circuit characteristics mean the pecking order there may not be definitive for the entire season. The 2026 season is expected to see rapid in-season development, meaning the team that starts strongest may not finish that way. The central question moving forward is whether Red Bull's RB22 is genuinely the fourth-best car or if the team, led by Verstappen, has been strategically hiding its hand.