Montoya: Red Bull 'Politics' Could Secure Tsunoda's 2026 Grid Spot

As Red Bull continues to deliberate its 2026 driver lineups, former F1 race winner Juan Pablo Montoya suggests that internal 'politics' might play a crucial role in Yuki Tsunoda retaining his seat. With Max Verstappen's position at the senior team secure and Isack Hadjar likely moving up, the battle for the two remaining Racing Bulls seats involves Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda, and Arvid Lindblad.

Why it matters:

Ferrari's long-standing quest for a championship-contending engine could dramatically alter F1's competitive landscape. A powerful and reliable power unit is essential for any team aiming to challenge established front-runners and reclaim a position they haven't consistently held since 2018. This pursuit signifies Ferrari's aggressive strategy to return to the pinnacle of Formula 1.

The details:

• Montoya, speaking on the MontoyAS podcast, believes Tsunoda's survival hinges less on raw performance and more on boardroom maneuvering within Red Bull. He noted, "If Helmut made the decisions, I would say that 90 percent he would be out."
• Shifting Power Dynamics: Montoya explains that power dynamics within the Red Bull empire have changed, with Red Bull Austria seeking more control over team decisions. This shift could make driver selections more political.
• Internal Roadmap: In Montoya's view, the plan is for Lindblad to move up, making the key decision whether Yuki or Liam Lawson departs. He acknowledges that, by the numbers, Tsunoda's performance (28 points to Verstappen's 341 in similar machinery) is hard to defend.
• Tsunoda's Improvement: Despite the points deficit, Montoya argues Tsunoda has done "better than Lawson would have" and shown improvement after being reinstated mid-season. He suggests that giving Yuki one more year could allow him to align things, making his removal less logical from a pure development standpoint.
• Montoya's Ideal Scenario: If he had the final say, Montoya would keep Tsunoda and Lawson for another year, not promoting Lindblad yet. However, he recognizes that "Where Helmut doesn't have 100 percent control of the decisions, everything is not so clear."

What's next:

Montoya's analysis points to a future where Red Bull's driver decisions are influenced by "a lot of politics and everything." While Tsunoda might be the most probable casualty on merit, strong political ties within Red Bull could provide him with a lifeline. This suggests that the final driver lineups for 2026 may not solely be based on performance, potentially leading to surprising outcomes in the Red Bull driver academy's competitive hierarchy.