Montoya: Tsunoda Likely Out of Red Bull if Marko Made the Call

Former F1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya believes Yuki Tsunoda would likely be out of a Red Bull seat if chief advisor Helmut Marko had sole decision-making power, despite the Japanese driver's improvements. Political factors, however, might still secure Tsunoda's future within the Red Bull fold, complicating what would otherwise be a straightforward decision for Marko.

Why it matters:

The driver lineup for Red Bull's senior and junior teams in 2026 is becoming increasingly complex, with multiple talented drivers vying for limited seats. The intertwining of performance, politics, and future development strategies within the Red Bull driver program is creating a highly speculative environment, where established drivers like Tsunoda face stiff competition from promising rookies like Liam Lawson, Isack Hadjar, and Arvid Lindblad. The final decisions will significantly impact the trajectory of these young careers and the competitive dynamics of the sport.

The Details:

• Juan Pablo Montoya stated on his 'MontoyAS podcast' that if Dr. Helmut Marko were the sole decision-maker, Yuki Tsunoda would have a "90 per cent" chance of being let go from the Red Bull program.
• Political Influence: Montoya highlighted that the situation is "not so black and white" due to changing dynamics within Red Bull, suggesting that Red Bull Austria seeks more control over team decisions, introducing political considerations beyond pure performance metrics.
• Contenders for 2026 Seats: While Max Verstappen is confirmed, three remaining seats are contested by Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda, Isack Hadjar, and F1 hopeful Arvid Lindblad.
  • Lindblad's Certainty: Montoya believes Arvid Lindblad is "up for sure," implying a strong likelihood of his promotion.
  • Tsunoda's Performance: Despite Marko's presumed stance, Montoya acknowledged Tsunoda's significant improvements, suggesting it wouldn't be "so logical to take him out" purely on performance.
  • Lawson and Hadjar: Both Liam Lawson and Isack Hadjar have been consistently finishing in the points at Racing Bulls, strengthening their case for a future seat.
• Decision-making Complexity: Montoya noted that the influx of political factors makes it harder to assess who will ultimately secure the seats, stating that if not for politics, all four drivers might deserve to continue.

Between the lines:

Montoya's comments underscore a shift in power dynamics within Red Bull. Historically, Helmut Marko has been the undisputed authority on driver development and selection. However, increasing involvement from Red Bull Austria suggests that driver decisions are now subject to broader corporate strategies, including commercial and political considerations, rather than being solely based on on-track performance or Marko's judgment. This broader influence could be a lifeline for drivers like Tsunoda, who might otherwise be at risk, while also adding a layer of uncertainty for all contenders.

What's next:

The intense competition for the remaining seats will likely play out over the coming months. The performance of Tsunoda, Lawson, and Hadjar will continue to be scrutinized, but the ultimate decision might rest on factors beyond pure racing ability. Red Bull's internal political landscape will heavily influence the 2026 driver lineup, making it a critical area to watch for fans and pundits alike. The team's recent struggles with grip in Brazil and their subsequent "massive 'gains'" in understanding their car issues also highlight their commitment to thorough analysis, a process that might extend to their driver choices.