Red Bull's Driver Dilemma: Politics vs. Performance in 2025 Lineup

Red Bull's 2025 driver lineup is steeped in internal politics and strategic planning, with former F1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya asserting that Arvid Lindblad is a certainty for promotion to Racing Bulls. This move ignites a fierce battle between Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson for the remaining Racing Bulls seat, a decision Montoya believes will be heavily influenced by Red Bull Austria's increasing control over Helmut Marko's traditional authority.

Why it matters:

The Red Bull driver program is renowned for its ruthless efficiency, but the impending 2025 decisions reveal a complex interplay of internal power dynamics and driver performance. The potential promotion of Isack Hadjar to Red Bull alongside Max Verstappen, and Lindblad to Racing Bulls, puts immense pressure on Tsunoda and Lawson, shaping not just their careers but the competitive landscape of the entire Red Bull family.

The details:

• Lindblad's Certainty: Juan Pablo Montoya is convinced that Formula 2 driver Arvid Lindblad will be promoted to Racing Bulls for the 2025 season.
• Red Bull Seat: Reports suggest Isack Hadjar has been informed by Helmut Marko of his promotion to Red Bull to partner Max Verstappen, though an official agreement is yet to be signed.
• Tsunoda vs. Lawson: If Hadjar moves to Red Bull, Tsunoda's current seat is open, potentially forcing him back to Racing Bulls where he would compete with Liam Lawson for a single remaining spot.
• Political Influence: Montoya highlights a growing political struggle between Helmut Marko's historical influence and Red Bull Austria's desire for more control, potentially swaying driver decisions that would otherwise be purely performance-based.
• Tsunoda's Resilience: Despite an anticipated exit under Marko's sole discretion, Montoya believes Tsunoda has strong political ties within Red Bull that could keep him in the system, possibly at Racing Bulls.
• Performance Argument: Montoya argues that Tsunoda's recent improvements, including four points finishes in seven races, make his removal "not so logical," especially with new cars arriving in 2025.

Between the lines:

The ongoing internal shifts at Red Bull, especially concerning control over driver promotions, add a layer of unpredictability. While Helmut Marko has historically been the sole arbiter of the driver pipeline, Red Bull Austria's asserted influence means decisions might not solely rest on performance metrics. This power struggle could offer Tsunoda a lifeline despite past remarks from Christian Horner about drivers not being able to "always be the bridesmaid."

What's next:

With three Red Bull-affiliated seats to fill (one at Red Bull, two at Racing Bulls) and four strong contenders (Tsunoda, Lawson, Hadjar, Lindblad), the upcoming announcements will be critical. The situation is further complicated by Tsunoda's potential links to Aston Martin for 2026, driven by Honda's partnership. The ultimate decisions will reveal whether Red Bull prioritizes pure performance, strategic political considerations, or a blend of both in shaping its F1 future.