Who Has the Most to Lose in F1 2025's Final Races?
The final three races of the 2025 F1 season in Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi hold immense stakes for several drivers and teams. Championship leader Lando Norris is battling for his maiden title, while Oscar Piastri fights to reclaim his early-season form and reputation. Ferrari faces the challenge of maintaining driver faith amid public criticism, and Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson are both in crucial fights to secure their F1 seats. Haas, meanwhile, must justify its late-season upgrade by securing a higher constructors' championship position, with significant financial implications.
The 2025 Formula 1 season is hurtling towards its climax with a triple-header in Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi. While every point matters, some drivers and teams stand to lose significantly more than others, with championship dreams, reputations, and even careers hanging in the balance.
Why it matters:
With the championship battle tightening and crucial team standings on the line, the final three races are not just about winning but about safeguarding futures. Drivers like Lando Norris are on the cusp of a maiden title, while others are fighting for their F1 careers or to justify major team investments. The outcomes will shape narratives, team strategies for 2026, and the perception of key figures in the sport.
The big picture:
- Lando Norris: The Championship: Norris leads the drivers' championship by 24 points over teammate Oscar Piastri, having outscored him for six consecutive rounds. A title victory would be a monumental achievement, solidifying his status as a top-tier driver. Anything less, after coming so close, would be a profound disappointment, especially given the uncertainty of future title opportunities. Unlike Max Verstappen, who already has four titles, this is Norris's best shot yet.
- Oscar Piastri: His Title-Contending Transformation: Piastri's season started with immense promise, positioning himself as a strong contender and potentially McLaren's future spearhead. However, a slump since Baku, marked by three race-ending crashes and large qualifying deficits to Norris, has cast doubt on his mental robustness under title pressure. He needs to reverse this trend to maintain his reputation and avoid uncomfortable questions about his ability to handle championship intensity, particularly on low-grip surfaces like the cold Las Vegas street circuit.
- Ferrari: The Faith of its Drivers: Ferrari faces an uphill battle to avoid its lowest championship position since 2020. President John Elkann's public criticism, urging drivers to "focus on driving and talk less" after a disastrous Brazilian GP, has fueled speculation. How Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton respond, both on and off track, will be critical. Hamilton's belief in Elkann's backing, crucial to his move, could be tested, while Leclerc's faith in the Ferrari project, already expressed with warnings about 2026, is at stake. Losing either driver's full commitment would be a major blow.
- Yuki Tsunoda: His Seat: With Red Bull delaying its 2026 driver decision, Yuki Tsunoda is fighting for his F1 future. Outside the Red Bull stable, race seat opportunities are non-existent. Another poor weekend, like his last-place finish in Brazil, could seal his fate, making him appear replaceable and confirming Red Bull's reservations about his consistency. He must perform to secure a seat, even if it's back at Racing Bulls.
- Liam Lawson: His F1 Career: Liam Lawson's F1 career hangs precariously. If he loses his seat, his F1 journey will likely end, facing competition from F2 driver Arvid Lindblad and Tsunoda. He needs strong performances in the remaining races, similar to his P5 in Baku and his solid drive in Brazil, to prove he is a dependable points scorer for Racing Bulls and make it difficult for Red Bull to let him go.
- Haas: Justifying its Late-Season Upgrade: Haas, F1's smallest team, has the most to lose in the constructors' championship, where each position is worth approximately $10 million—a vital sum for their 2026 prospects. Their ambitious late-season upgrade, introduced at Austin, has made them a midfield leader. Ollie Bearman's impressive points tally with this upgrade (22 points in the last three rounds) needs to translate into a move from eighth to sixth in the championship to fully justify the investment. Failure to capitalize on this momentum, especially with Esteban Ocon being comprehensively outscored by Bearman, could raise questions about their strategy and Ocon's future.
What's next:
The upcoming triple-header will be a pressure cooker for all involved. For Norris and Piastri, it's about converting potential into glory or salvaging reputations. For Ferrari, it's about rebuilding driver confidence amid external scrutiny. And for the Red Bull junior drivers and Haas, it's a fight for survival and financial justification, respectively. The outcomes will not only decide the 2025 season but also significantly influence the landscape of Formula 1 heading into 2026.