Johnny Herbert's 'gut feeling' on 2026 F1 favorites
F1 veteran Johnny Herbert believes Mercedes looks strong based on its massive testing mileage ahead of the 2026 rules reset, but says Red Bull's new engine and Ferrari's ability to convert testing pace remain major unknowns that could reshape the early pecking order.
Former F1 driver Johnny Herbert says his "gut feeling" is that Mercedes appears strong heading into the 2026 season, though he warns against counting out rivals Red Bull and Ferrari, who face significant unanswered questions. The Silver Arrows' extensive testing mileage has fueled speculation of a return to dominance under new regulations, but Herbert cautions that pre-season form is historically unreliable.
Why it matters:
The 2026 season introduces a major shift in power unit regulations, potentially resetting the competitive order. Identifying an early favorite is crucial for understanding the upcoming title fight, but past seasons have shown that winter testing can be a misleading indicator of true race pace, making expert analysis like Herbert's a key barometer for fan and team expectations.
The details:
- Herbert highlighted Mercedes' impressive testing program, completing over 500 laps in Barcelona, which aligns with paddock rumors pointing to the team as an early favorite.
- Red Bull's Unknown: The reigning champions' new in-house power unit has drawn attention but remains an unproven quantity. Herbert questions how the team will adapt to being its own engine supplier for the first time in the new era.
- Ferrari's Consistency Question: While the Scuderia showed promising pace and reliability in testing, Herbert notes a recurring pattern where Ferrari's winter speed fails to translate into a sustained season-long challenge, referencing their performance from the last two years.
- The former driver emphasized that true competitive order will only be revealed at the first race, with all teams likely hiding their full potential and working through undisclosed issues during testing.
What's next:
All eyes turn to the final three-day test in Bahrain and the subsequent season opener. Mercedes will aim to prove its testing mileage translates to race-winning performance. Red Bull must demonstrate its bold engine project is ready for the top level, while Ferrari's critical task is to finally convert preseason promise into consistent weekend results, breaking the cycle of early-season optimism followed by disappointment.